ISHS Acta Horticulturae 1425: International Symposium on Models for Plant Growth, Environments, Farm Management in Orchards and Protected Cultivation - HorchiModel2023
Decision support for selecting suitable frost protection methods for apricot orchards in Germany |
| Authors: | C. Schmitz, L. Zimmermann, C. Whitney, M. Balmer, E. Luedeling |
| Keywords: | phenological development, wind machines, below-canopy irrigation, candles, decision analysis, spring frost, participatory modeling |
| DOI: | 10.17660/ActaHortic.2025.1425.30 |
| Abstract:
Fruit growers are increasingly interested in protecting their orchards against spring frost during bloom. The current trend toward earlier phenological development increases concerns about severe frost damage. Especially for niche products, such as apricots produced in Germany, protecting against yield losses is of crucial economic importance. The lack of precise information about the characteristics of specific frost protection methods makes it difficult to select locally appropriate frost protection strategies. Growers have access to several frost protection methods. However, these differ greatly in terms of costs, effectiveness, and labor requirement. Further uncertainty is incurred through the necessarily limited information on risks associated with differing management methods, and on current and future frost risks. We developed a decision support model to advise fruit growers on investments in frost protection. The model compares three relevant frost protection measures with different modes of action: wind machines, below-canopy irrigation, and candles that heat the orchard. We used a decision analysis approach to build a holistic model of the choice between frost protection options. We began with a conceptual model that we created together with experts and key stakeholders. The model includes all important risks and fully considers all relevant uncertainties related to the costs, benefits and risks of frost protection methods. Input parameters were gathered from the literature and through expert estimates in the form of probability distributions. We implemented the model as a Monte Carlo simulation and projected probability distributions for the Net Present Value and the annual cash flow for the different decision options. Based on this model, we evaluate the adoption of frost protection measures in apricot orchards in the federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate in southwestern Germany and provide advice to local fruit growers. | |
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