ISHS Acta Horticulturae 838: Workshop on Berry Production in Changing Climate Conditions and Cultivation Systems. COST-Action 863: Euroberry Research: from Genomics to Sustainable Production, Quality and Health
MODELLING OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROWTH AND FRUITING OF BLACKCURRANT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF ROMANIA |
| Authors: | E. Chitu, P. Mladin, M. Coman |
| Keywords: | frost damage, Ribes nigrum cultivars, green tip, flowering |
| DOI: | 10.17660/ActaHortic.2009.838.4 |
| Abstract:
In order to avoid negative influences of climatic factors by proper zoning and specific control methods, scientists have developed many climate-based models. In this paper, the local climatic stress factors were divided into chronically and accidentally occurring factors, and two different methods were developed accordingly for limitation of their negative biological effects: for accidentally-occurring factors, the probability theory was used and for the chronically-occuring ones, regression methods were developed. For accidentally-occurring factors, a new simulation model was made to estimate not only the phenological dynamics until the end of blossom, but also to compute the probability of occurrence for climatic accidents caused by late frosts in blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum L.) plantations. The damage probability was computed as the simultaneous occurrence of a susceptible phenophase and the critical temperature. The highest risk (8.6%) of frost damage was estimated for the 21-25 March period, when in 49.7% of the years the plants were between the stages of green tip and onset of blooming, in 0.3% of the years had bloomed, and in 50% the plants were not yet in the stage of onset of vegetation. On average, for the 23 locations studied, the probability of damage occurring by late frosts was 3.45%. For the chronically occurring factors, link strengths between weather data and biological parameters of the blackcurrant ‘Record’, ‘Tinker’, and ‘Bogatar’ were evaluated. The climate rating estimation model was based to identify time intervals that produced strong correlations between major climatic and biological parameters. Fruit yield was more correlated to the fruit number per tree than to average fruit weight, and the fruit number per tree was significantly influenced (R2=0.931***) by the number of flowers per bush. Monthly mean and minimum temperatures in July to August, as well as mean and minimum temperature and evapotranspiration in July, the year before harvest, influenced the number of flowers per bush significantly and negatively. | |
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