ISHS Acta Horticulturae 803: VIII International Symposium on Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
ESTABLISHMENT OF A MODEL TO ESTIMATE CROP LOAD ON JAPANESE PLUM (PRUNUS SALICINA LINDL.) BEFORE BLOOM |
| Authors: | C. Miranda, L.G. Santesteban, J.B. Royo |
| Keywords: | crop insurance, spring frost, yield efficiency |
| Abstract:
After a spring frost, crop loss must be evaluated in order to determine the compensation growers should get from insurance companies. Crop loss estimation is usually made comparing final yield with possible yield under normal conditions. Therefore, there is a need to develop models that allow estimating potential yield from variables easily measurable at the beginning of the growth season. Previously, our team has developed models that were able to estimate potential yield in peach, pear and apple. The aim of this project was to establish a model that allows early estimation of potential yield in Japanese plum. During the years 2001, 2002 and 2003, in 52 commercial plots of Japanese plum (Prunus salicina Lindl.), the following measurements were obtained: trunk cross-sectional area (TCA), trunk cross-sectional area per hectare (TCA/ha), spur density per TCA and land area (STA, SLA), flower bud density per TCA and land area (BTA, BLA), flower density per TCA and land area (FTA, FLA), and adjusted crop density (CDA). CDA was related to the rest of the variables through multiple and simple curvilinear regression models. The model that provided the best fit was CDA = LN (TCA/ha) (R2=0.62, P>0.001). The model was significantly accurate, consistent and appropriate for both years. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated for 20 different plots in 2006. Statistical analyses showed the model to be valid for forecasting crop density in Japanese plum to an extent that it represents a useful tool for early crop forecasts and crop loss evaluation due to spring frost. | |
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