FORECAST OF REAL PRICE RATIO OF FRUIT BASED ON CONSUMERS' PREFERENCE MEASURED IN MARKET TEST

In course of the qualitative development of products, or the development of new product types, examination of this factor becomes necessary, especially when the aim is to compare growing production costs of the product with the prospective return from sales.

In the branch of horticulture we have been confronted with this task, for example, in respect of qualifying new varieties, or when the aim has been to determine the added value of apples stored in controlled atmosphere. The said cases are complicated since our considerations cannot be based on effective market experiences as yet. Thus the task cannot be else than to estimate, as a sort of forecast, prospective consumer preferences on the basis of small quantities. In other words, the task is to establish the degree of favourability of the product, on the basis of its character and quality properties, and to find out the price ratio being likely to ensure prospective sales, as compared with other known similar products.

In such cases it is not sufficient to characterize the general consumers' behaviour, for which we have employed the semantic differential scale, but it is necessary to explore market considerations. To be able to do so it is necessary

• to quantify the degree of favourability, on the one hand,
• to try to estimate prospective price ratios by means of the data obtained, on the other.

Thus, it is not sufficient to compare product parameters. We have to observe consumer's behaviour, the subjective preferences of the consumer, based on the degree of favourability, underlying the choice of the buyers from various products. We are searching for the connection between the degree of favourability and the product type concerned, we should like to measure the changes in the degree of favourability resulting from the differences in the product properties, so that ultimately we may be able

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