ISHS Acta Horticulturae 734: VIII International Symposium on Plum and Prune Genetics, Breeding and Pomology
PREDICTION OF PLUM YIELD IN ULLENSVANG, NORWAY |
| Authors: | F. Måge, A. Døving, E. Vangdal |
| Keywords: | Prunus, modelling, climate, temperature, meteorological |
| Abstract:
Climatic effects on yield and prediction of yield in commercial plum production were studied. Data were collected from five small fruit co-operations in Ullensvang in the fjord district of Norway. Relative yield level as percentage of a moving average for the years 1962-2002 was compared to meteorological data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Yield level was positively correlated to the number of sun hours in July and August previous to the fruiting year; one hour more of sun in July gave 0.3% higher yield the next year. Yield level was negatively correlated to high temperatures in January and February; one more degree C in February mean temperature gave 7.5% lower yield. The correlations between yield and meteorological data were quite similar for the five co-operations. Multiple regression models with meteorological variables as predictors were developed for predicting yield. When predicting relative yield level as a percentage of an average, the models can be applicable for both co-operations and for fruit growers. | |
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