ISHS Acta Horticulturae 707: VII International Symposium on Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
THE PILEUS PROJECT: CLIMATIC IMPACTS ON SOUR CHERRY PRODUCTION IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN PAST AND PROJECTED FUTURE TIME FRAMES |
| Authors: | C. Zavalloni, J.A. Andresen, J.A. Winkler, J.A. Flore, J.R. Black, T.L. Beedy |
| Keywords: | Prunus cerasus, flower bud phenology model, temperature, growing degree-days, Michigan, climate change and variability |
| Abstract:
A temperature-based model simulating the growth and development of sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) was developed to determine the impacts of climate in past and potential future time trends. Phenological development from ‘side green’ through ‘petal fall’ stages is driven in the model by daily growing degree-day accumulation from January 1 with an empirical function developed from detailed observations collected in 1994, and 1995 from two locations in western Lower Michigan, and from one location in Northwest Michigan (1994 only). The model was validated with phenological observations from major production areas of western Lower Michigan for the period 1976-2003. Following validation, historical weather data series from Lower Michigan were used to simulate phenological developmental stages for the period 1930-2000. Output from the model suggests that initial phenological development tended to occur relatively earlier in the season in recent decades of this period. Since early phenological development is also associated with greater susceptibility to cold injury, the simulations also suggested an increased probability of spring bud damage, especially during the past 20-30 years. Plausible climate scenarios of future climatic conditions were developed from three separate general circulation models, which allowed projections of phenological development rates through the year 2100. | |
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