ISHS Acta Horticulturae 682: V International Postharvest Symposium
MODELLING VARIABILITY OF QUALITY KINETICS DURING POSTHARVEST STORAGE: |
| Authors: | N. Scheerlinck, M. Desmet, C. Franck, J. Lammertyn, M.L.A.T.M. Hertog, B. Nicolaï |
| Keywords: | quality kinetics, variability, modelling, Fokker-Planck |
| Abstract:
A generic approach is developed to express and visualise the dynamics of fruit quality evolution in terms of the probability that particular events during storage happen. Present methodologies for modelling fruit quality kinetics are extended to account for the variability, which is observed during postharvest. The basic dynamics of fruit quality changes are described by means of a limited number of – measurable – state variables and parameters. In order to account for biological and instrumental variability, the evolution of fruit quality is represented by means of a dynamic system in which the initial conditions and the model parameters are specified as random variables together with their probability density functions. A generic approach from stochastic systems theory is introduced to predict the propagation of the probability density functions of fruit quality attributes, which requires the numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equation, i.e., the governing equation for stochastic evolution of a probability density function. As an illustrative example to demonstrate the main features of the developed concepts and stochastic methodology, the firmness evolution during storage of three tomato cultivars (‘Quest’, ‘Style’, and ‘Tradiro’) was followed, and the propagation of its probability density function was predicted. | |
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