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ISHS Acta Horticulturae 654: International Workshop on Models for Plant Growth and Control of Product Quality in Horticultural Production

PREDICTION OF STRAWBERRY SEASON AND YIELD

Author:   A. Døving
Keywords:   Botrytis cinerea, climate, Fragaria x ananassa, models, forecasting, Norway
Abstract:
Reliable data on season and yield for commercial strawberry growing in the Valldal district in Norway for the years 1967-2000 were used. A cubic equation was fitted to accumulated yield as related to time. Start and top of season were correlated to May and June temperatures; 1C higher May-June mean temperature gave a 4.8 days earlier start of season. Regressions with temperatures as variables for predicting start of harvesting season were estimated. Regression models gave more reliable predictions than the use of degree days. A strong correlation between yield level and fungicide used against Botrytis cinerea was found. Yield was negatively correlated with temperatures in August and positively correlated with temperatures in September previous to the fruiting year. Yield was positively correlated with temperature in April. Several regression equations for predicting yield were estimated; meteorological data, fungicides, and year were used as variables. The regression method for predicting season and yield may be useful for production and marketing of strawberries.
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