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ISHS Acta Horticulturae 654: International Workshop on Models for Plant Growth and Control of Product Quality in Horticultural Production

A STOCHASTIC MATRIX SIMULATION OF FLOWER PRODUCTION IN ROSE (ROSA x HYBRIDA)

Authors:   E. Presnov, E. Dayan, M. Fuchs, Z. Plaut
Keywords:   flower cycle, Markov chain, oscillations, spline interpolation
Abstract:
In this study, we developed an age-structured model (based on difference equations) to investigate the dynamics of the number of flowering shoots produced by a greenhouse rose crop. It utilizes a matrix of coefficients based on past data of seasonal variation of flowering shoot production, assigning a random transition factor to express the number of new flowering shoots that appear after the harvest of mature flowers. An external sinusoidal forcing function modulates this random factor. The resulting calculation generates oscillations with amplitudes and periods similar to the measured production of the rose crop.
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