|Authors: ||J. Lepsis, M.M. Blanke|
|Keywords: ||vegetative growth, TCSA, apple tree|
Significant results in the investigations carried out for fruit trees growth and yielding often are available only in 10-15 years.
One of the possible ways for forward a solutions is utilising of the prognosis for dynamic of processes.
The aim of the analysed investigation was to clarify the possibility to generate usable forecast of the time dependence of the tree trunk cross section area (TCSA) in the intensive orchard depending of the planting system.
Prognosis was generated for the orchard located in Latvia by utilising of the results from the investigation carried out in Germany.
TCSA prognosis was characterised by power function.
Prognosis was generated for two groups of planting systems: 1) tree density 1250-1660 trees per ha and 2) tree density 2500-3075 trees per ha.
The minimal error of prognosis was detected as ± 15%. Prognosis of the tree vegetative growth can be used for yield modelling, because the relation between TCSA and yield is the most widely used parameter of yield effectiveness.
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