ISHS Acta Horticulturae 566: II International Symposium on Application of Modelling as an Innovative Technology in the Agri-Food Chain; MODEL-IT
MODELLING THE SHELF-LIFE OF FOOD DUE TO THE GROWTH OF SPOILAGE ORGANISMS UNDER CHANGING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SUPPLY CHAIN |
| Authors: | P.R. Shorten, A.B. Pleasants, T.K. Soboleva, R.J. Jones |
| Keywords: | Modelling, Microbial population, Probability distributions, Lactobacillus |
| Abstract:
For predictive microbiological schemes to assist in the design of industrial food safety systems, mathematical models must incorporate the effects of changing environmental conditions on the microbial population along with variability and uncertainty within the system. Therefore, a probabilistic dynamic model framework is required. A dynamic stochastic framework has been developed suitable for laboratory experiments where only one microbial strain is under investigation. However, under industrial conditions, different microbial strains coexist, and each microbe may have a different previous history or physiological state. In this paper we develop a simple probabilistic dynamic framework suitable for risk management under such industrial conditions. Using this framework we estimate the variability and uncertainty in the growth of Lactobacillus in a specific industrial process. | |
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