ISHS Acta Horticulturae 55: IV Symposium on Horticultural Economics
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST OF ORCHARD FRUIT PRODUCTION POTENTIAL IN THE COMMON MARKET - A PROGRESS REPORT |
| Authors: | D. Thiede, B. Wilson |
| Abstract:
The forecast for desert apples, pears, peaches and oranges being made by the Statistical Office of the European Communities in Luxembourg, is one of a series of "pipeline" forecasts to assist policy making in the agricultural sector. Whereas actual orchard yields in a given year will depend upon exogenous variables (weather, technological changes and growers decisions), the purpose of this forecast is to estimate the maximum production potential in a "normal" year five years ahead based upon variety, age and density structure and the appropriate age/yield relationship, in the knowledge that fruit trees reach their full yield only a number of years after planting. The Community spent some 207 million units of account between 1970 and 1973 in annual market intervention in the fruit and vegetable sector together with 63 million units of account for orchard clearing schemes. The expenditure for this forecasting exercise amounts to 708 000 units of account for national area surveys and 68 000 units for yield data studies by national experts. | |
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