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| Authors: | A.J. Hall, H.G. McPherson |
Abstract:
We have found that models for prediction of the timing of bud break in kiwifruit based on the accumulation of a fixed number of chill units, followed by a fixed number of thermal units, are unsuccessful.
In the model described here, the rate of development towards bud break is given by a weighted average of a chilling and a warming response, with the weightings changing as development proceeds.
The model, based on daily mean temperatures only, has been successful in explaining almost all of the large variation observed in the date of bud break at six New Zealand sites over 4 years.
In fitting the model parameters, two important features became apparent: a model of chilling in kiwifruit must take into account autumn temperatures as well as winter temperatures; and the transition from winter chilling to spring warming must be treated as a smooth transition rather than an abrupt change.
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