ISHS Acta Horticulturae 429: XIII International Symposium on Horticultural Economics
MODELING SUPPLY RESPONSE TO PESTICIDE LOSS IN PERENNIAL FRUITS |
| Authors: | Susan G. Rozanski, Scott M. Swinton |
| Keywords: | Environmental regulation, Mathematical programming, Tart cherry, Apple, Econometrics |
| Abstract:
Producers of “minor use crops” such as tree fruits are particularly susceptible to decreased pesticide availability due to regulatory pressure, manufacturer withdrawal of chemical compounds, and natural pest resistance. Fewer and costlier pest management alternatives will reduce the supply of minor use horticultural crops at any given price and quality level. By critically reviewing past perennial supply response studies and pesticide policy analyses, five model characteristics needed to predict the likely supply response to pesticide losses are identified. This research develops a dynamic recursive programming-econometric model that incorporates the identified model characteristics to estimate the likely supply response for tart cherry and apple due to selected pesticide losses. For ex ante technology and regulatory analysis, the model explicitly incorporates viable alternative crops and several pest management strategies for each crop. This specification permits production and input substitutions in response to pesticide availability and associated expected net returns. The chosen framework also addresses fruit quality implications by allowing the proportion of fruit allocated to fresh versus processed markets to vary by pest management strategies. Apart from the economics of supply response, the model can be used to track chemical emissions into the environment by using pesticide accounting rows in the mathematical programming component of the model. | |
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