ISHS Acta Horticulturae 429: XIII International Symposium on Horticultural Economics
AN ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MEXICAN AVOCADO IMPORTS ON THE CALIFORNIA INDUSTRY |
| Authors: | H. Carman, R. Cook |
| Keywords: | Avocado supply response, Demand characteristics, Simulation model |
| Abstract:
Lifting the long-standing ban on imports of avocados produced in Mexico will have economic impacts on California producers. Increased imports will almost certainly occur, given the size and cost structure of the Mexican industry, and any increase will decrease both prices and total crop revenues for U.S. producers. Over time, the reduction in average avocado prices, revenues per hectare, and profit expectations will lead to a smaller domestic industry as new plantings decrease and tree removals continue. A recursive model of bearing area adjustments to alternative levels of imports ranging from a base of 22.7 to a high of 226.8 grams per capita is used to simulate changes in average prices and bearing area to the year 2010, given a set of assumptions concerning changes in determinants of demand. Under specified conditions, imports of 226.8 grams (.50 pounds) per capita decreased average prices by almost 17 percent below the base and bearing hectares by over 18 percent below the base in 2010. | |
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