ISHS Acta Horticulturae 416: IV International Symposium on Computer Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
INSIM A SIMULATION ENVIRONMENT FOR PEST FORECASTING AND SIMULATION OF PEST-NATURAL ENEMY INTERACTION |
| Authors: | P.J.M. Mols, D. Diederik |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, simulation, phenological model, population model, apple pests |
| Abstract:
For the development of forecasting models a computer environment has been contructed which makes it possible to generate in a user friendly way a programme of the phenology and population development of an insect species. INSIM (INsect SIMulation) is menu driven and needs only the biological information of the insect species. INSIM generates age-structured models and therefore includes modules calculating number and development of insects by using of boxcars, to account for the relative dispersion of development. By means of tables all life-history data are read into the programme. For a simple phenological or population model the information needed is: life cycle, development rate and standard deviation of each insect stage, sex ratio, life expectancy of the adult and age dependent reproduction. In a spreadsheet the stages are coupled to each other which makes the program rather flexible. The weather data, the minimum and maximum daily temperature, are stored in an environment file. The temperature for each time step is calculated from a sinusoid through the minimum and maximum temperature. The output of the chosen variables can be presented graphically or numerically on the screen. For the simulation of complicated predator- prey interactions specific programming is still needed but this is not too complicated as the program is written in Quick-Basic. Examples of simple phenological and population models and more complex pest-natural enemies models are presented. | |
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