ISHS Acta Horticulturae 313: III International Symposium on Computer Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
A MODEL TO SIMULATE THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE CODLING MOTH (CYDIA POMONELLA): PARAMETER ESTIMATION, VALIDATION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS |
| Author: | H. Lischke |
| Abstract:
As a basis to forecast the second generation of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella) a model simulating the animal's population dynamics has been developed. It consists of submodels for the development (depending on temperature via a nonlinear optimum function) for reproduction, death and diapause induction. Parameter values are obtained by a combination of numerical fitting to laboratory data and tuning to phenological field data. The higher temperature inside the apple, the larva's habitat, is implicitely contained in the larval developmental times. Validations with input datasets from 6 different years and locations yield a satisfactory similarity between data and simulation; simulation of the first summer generation moths is only a few days later than data. Sensitivity analysis indicates a strong dependence of the model behavior on the increasing part of the temperature dependence function of the development and on the initial distribution of the moths' hatch in spring. | |
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