ISHS Acta Horticulturae 313: III International Symposium on Computer Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
MULTIFRU: MULTIPLE-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING IN ORCHARD MANAGEMENT |
| Authors: | F. Alvisi, C. Malagoli, D. Regazzi |
| Abstract:
The need for multi-criterial assessment in agriculture is clearly becoming evident. The farm as business enterprise is increasingly being seen as a nucleus of activities, both internal and external to the farm itself, that are so closely interwoven with each other that flaws in one sector are inevitably felt in the others, at times even determining markedly negative effects. This situation underscores the need of the grower carefully, and with a certain degree of objectivity, to assess all the ramifications, whether market or extra-market, stemming from a given project. This is particularly true of decisions directly affecting the farm, for they must be in line with the objectives set by the farmer. Very often these objectives are either not explicitly spelled out or, at best, but vaguely formulated, conflicting (maximizing income, minimizing labour and risk), and ranked in order of a priority that can lead to certain goals being pursued to the detriment of others. The decision-making process involved in determining which type of orchard to establish usually tends to ignore the assessment of those factors which have no market or for which no 'surrogate market' can be created, leading to their being designated as extra-market and, hence, not subject to economic evaluation. The choice of options thus becomes the exclusive function of an profit rating system against which the other, non-excluded alternatives are measured. The option chosen will be the one that maximizes the difference between cost and return, or the one that results in the highest earnings on capital investment. This essentially is a mono-criterion approach, based as it is on the comparatively estimated cash flow generated by competing options or project proposals. Such an approach is, from a practical standpoint, i.e. that of the real grower, one that rather limits the list of options actually available. Indeed the farmer also makes decisions on the basis of other factors or parameters which have nothing to do with the profit or net income expected from a given production process. The main criteria (Level 1 parameters) used by the decision-maker in choosing among production options can be listed as follows: profitability, risk, production factors and their quality, personal needs, legislative profile. The rating | |
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