ISHS Acta Horticulturae 276: II International Symposium on Computer Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
A MODEL TO SIMULATE THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE CODLING MOTH (CYDIA POMONELLA L. (LEPIDOPTERA, TORTRICIDAE)): DEVELOPMENT AND MALE MOTH FLIGHT |
| Authors: | H. Lischke, N. Blago |
| Abstract:
As a base for a prognosis system to control the codling moth (Cydia pomonella), a mathematical model to simulate its population dynamics is presented. The dynamics are described as a system of ordinary differential equations. In a submodel for the temperature dependent development of the pest, a climate dependent reproduction model is inserted. Simulations of the development model describe qualitatively the phenology of the pest with and without the use of a pesticide. A climate dependent model for the flight of the male moths before copulation was fitted to pheromone trap data; it shows a strong temperature- but no significant humidity-dependence. | |
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