ISHS Acta Horticulturae 276: II International Symposium on Computer Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
A COMPUTER MODEL FOR PEACH ORCHARD REPLACEMENT |
| Authors: | Larry L. Bauer, G. D. Bishop, P. James Rathwell |
| Abstract:
A computer program is illustrated that aids in the decision of determining the economically optimum time to replace a peach orchard. The decision maker inputs expected yields, annual costs, prices, and harvest cost for the replacement orchard along with the expected current annual income for the existing orchard and a discount rate. The model uses the information for the replacement orchard to calculate the expected net income for each year and the discount rate is used to determine the net present value each year. These annual estimates are accumulated through a particular year to determine total net present value of income up to and including that year. This is done for each year in the expected life of the replacement orchard. Since these are estimates of total income, they cannot be compared to an annual income. To accomplish this, the accumulated net present value estimate for each year is amortized to determine the necessary annual income that will equal the accumulated net present value for that year. The largest amortized value is selected to represent the expected average, or annual, income from the replacement orchard. If this is larger than the income expected from the existing orchard, the decision should be to replace. | |
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