ISHS Acta Horticulturae 276: II International Symposium on Computer Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON THE PHENOLOGY OF NEW ZEALAND FRUIT CROPS. |
| Authors: | T.A. Atkins, E.R. Morgan |
| Abstract:
The impact of possible changes in the global climate on agricultural systems has been the topic of many recent studies. The impact of warming temperatures on horticultural systems has stressed the significance of the reduction in winter chilling and a consequent requirement for shifting areas of production. In this paper we examine the effect of 3 possible variations of the climate change scenario of a 1.5 C increase in mean temperature on the full bloom dates of pip and stone fruit trees in Hawkes Bay, New Zealand. This paper serves to raise the question of what level of detail is appropriate for the modelling of the biological implications of climate change. We also highlight the variation in outcomes which can arise through small changes in scenarios and the need to consider uncertainty during policy formulation. | |
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