ISHS Acta Horticulturae 276: II International Symposium on Computer Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
DISTRIBUTED DELAY MODEL OF APRICOT TREE BUD-BREAK PHENOLOGY: PARAMETERS ESTIMATION BASED ON FIELD DATA |
| Authors: | M. Severini, M. Ricci, J. Baumgärtner |
| Abstract:
Time distributed delays are often used to simulate the phenologies and the dynamics of plant and animal populations. In this study we propose a method for estimating the parameters of a time-varying distributed delay model for apricot buds passing through flowering phenophases using field data. Cohort specific measurements were used first to formulate a relationship between transit times and field temperatures. In this study a linear function satisfactorily represented the relationship between developmental rate and temperature, but linearity is not a prerequisite for our method. If the observed transit times are expressed as proportions of the expected transit times, the probability distributions of the different cohorts can be pooled, and an Erlang function fitted to the combined cohort data. Preliminary validation studies against experimental data produced promising results. | |
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