Abstract:
I wish to express my thanks to the organisers of this symposium on the culture of subtropical and tropical fruits and crops for inviting me to deliver the opening address.
I also wish to extend a word of welcome and friendly greetings to all local and overseas participants.
This symposium is held under the auspices of the International Society for Horticultural Science and South Africa, as a founder member of this society, is privileged to host this event.
The aim of the symposium is to bring together scientists who will present and discuss their research results and latest advances in the fields of their respective disciplines.
It goes without saying that the success of any scientific symposium or meeting depends to a large extent on the quality of the contributions being made.
I have no doubt that a symposium where so many learned and distinguished overseas as well as local participants are gathered is bound to be a great success.
I would like to pay special tribute to all our overseas participants.
George Washington said: "actions, not words, are the true criterion of friends" and the Greek philosopher Sophocles said: "to throw away an honest friend is to throw away your life". It is in this sense of friendship that we appreciate your presence and extend a hearty welcome to each and all of you.
You are, however, in the first place scientists concerned with research into the cultivation of subtropical and tropical crops, and scientists who believe that science should not be restricted by any barriers.
You also realise that complex scientific problems can best be solved by pooling all available information and expertise, and acknowledge the need and value of international co-operation in attempts to solve problems.
It has been shown that any scientific discipline can benefit by international co-operation and this symposium offers the opportunity for such co-operation on scientific and technical ground.
Symposium 89 could have mutual benefits for all countries cultivating subtropical and tropical fruits and crops, but especially for African and other developing third world countries.
The knowledge presented here could serve as a basis for the formulation of new hypotheses and research strategies for the future.
In this respect South Africa's agricultural research in particular is of value to many countries on the African continent.
Our research findings, technology and expertise are, in fact, extensively in demand and applied in African states and elsewhere.
The symposium is being hosted by the Citrus and Subtropical Fruit Research Institute, an organisation whose importance to the outside world is evident in the ever increasing requests for information.
These requests are not only from countries of the third world, but also from first world countries and even from behind the iron curtain.
Agriculturists in two African states have declared that this Institute is one of the best sources of farming information in the world.
With its numerous achievements this Institute has indeed made its mark in the field of research.
The Department of Agricultural Development is involved in development projects in several African countries and there is close collaboration and liaison between this Institute and numerous countries in Africa.
A vast amount of information on production and related aspects is supplied by the Institute on a regular basis to African states and overseas countries, both in print and through personal contact.
The five-day symposium will be an ideal forum for the exchange of information and it could set an example to prove again that different countries can work together in the scientific field, in the mutual interest of science and the well-being of mankind.
I trust that your deliberations will have a positive influence on international scientific research and relations.
Ex unitate vires, the motto on South Africa's coat of arms, meaning unity is strength, could be applied to this symposium.
Only by a concerted effort will the problems confronting our respective industries be solved.
It will be to our mutual benefit to take stock of the research which is being conducted, to identify problem areas and perhaps even to co-ordinate more of our research efforts in future.
History, as such, is not a guideline for the future, but it provides lessons which should be taken to heart so that we might guard against future disasters.
Jan van Riebeeck, who established a revictualling station for the Dutch East India company at the Cape of Good Hope in 1652, imported mango trees and planted the first bananas and papayas.
This introduction, however, was unsuccessful because of the unsuitable winter weather in the cape peninsula.
Van Riebeeck came up against the capriciousness of the South African climate, and to this day a thorough knowledge of the wide variety of climatic zones and soil types as well as the seasonal pattern of rainfall and temperature is essential to the successful cultivation of subtropical crops.
Our friends from abroad must have noticed the changing topography and even the climate on their journey from Johannesburg on the highveld to the beautiful lowveld where the Citrus and Subtropical Fruit Research Institute is situated.
The major function of this Institute is to eliminate technological problems which impede commercial production.
Research is aimed at developing techniques to optimise production of high quality products at reasonable costs.
Aspects which are investigated include breeding and selection of better genotypes, irrigation, cultivation practices, plant nutrition and physiology of crops, control of diseases and pests as well as post-harvest technology.
The commercial cultivation of subtropical fruit in South Africa commenced in earnest as recently as around 1950. Today this industry consists of a number of major crops, namely pineapples, bananas, avocados, mangoes, litchis, papayas, guavas, granadillas, pecan and macadamia nuts as well as tea, coffee and ginger.
During the past 25 years there has been a 60 percent increase in subtropical fruit production in South African.
During the past decade in particular, progress has been substantial and subtropical fruit is becoming the fastest developing of all South Africa's horticultural ventures.
All the subtropical fruits which are cultivated in South Africa trace back to tropical areas and countries far beyond our borders.
Through meaningful and sustained research our scientists have managed to make these tropical crops adaptable to South Africa's subtropical conditions in the northern and eastern Transvaal, Natal and the eastern Cape.
The success of the industry can be ascribed not only to organisation and the implementation of advice by growers, but largely to research.
Research is one of the cornerstones for development because solutions must be found for problems while guidelines must constantly be determined for the optimisation of production and quality as well as the maximisation of profits.
Any agricultural industry can only develop successfully if it is efficiently served through research and advice.
The aim should be to employ modern technology to its fullest capacity, to keep abreast in a fast changing world, to embark on innovations and to determine how to meet tomorrow's challenges today.
Factors which can make an important contribution towards optimisation of production and quality are the provision of improved genotypes with regard to production, quality, vigour, disease resistance, phenology and fruit quality, as well as the provision of scientifically founded plant improvement schemes in order to ensure that only healthy material of good quality be made available to the industry.
During the past two decades several subtropical fruit cultivars of local origin as well as imported and improved genotypes were released to producers.
I was pleasantly surprised to see how many eminent scientists are going to discuss pressing issues on the culture of subtropical and tropical fruits and crops.
You will have presentations on plant growth substances in subtropical crops, the protection of new plant varieties, novel approaches to solving specific problems, market development and fruit quality as well as papers on new developments such as genetic engineering, molecular biology or biotechnology.
It is evident from research of late that progress in plant breeding has become increasingly dependent on developments on cellular and molecular levels.
Since genetic manipulation at a molecular level is becoming increasingly popular, a greater demand for in vitro rearing and multiplication of plants has developed, thus causing plant physiology to become an integral part of modern plant breeding.
With the emphasis in breeding shifting towards the molecular level, a thorough knowledge of biochemistry has become a greater necessity than in the past.
Plant breeding has always been closely linked to disciplines like plant pathology, entomology and agronomy, but the development of biotechnology has caused these disciplines to be even more closely linked.
It follows that modern plant breeding will all the more become a team effort.
In view of the cost involved in applying modern technology, the roles of the public and private sectors in breeding programmes will have to be carefully considered in order to utilise available resources optimally.
Plant physiology, based on tissue culture and genetic engineering, conveys an exciting concept in that we have new tools and technologies enabling us to modify plants with a precision not formerly possible.
Since the inception of a plant physiology section at the Citrus and Subtropical Fruit Research Institute rapid progress has been made in the field of tissue culture of citrus, pineapples, bananas, avocados, mangoes, granadillas and ginger.
Parallel to this research, supporting investigations into the biochemistry of disease resistance, stress physiology and growth regulators have been conducted to serve as a basis for the development of superior cultivars.
The stage has been set for the practical implementation of biotechnology and the supporting disciplines of biochemistry and genetics in the development of superior fruit cultivars in South Africa.
I wish to thank all who sponsored this symposium financially.
Thank you for your encouragement and insight in realising the importance of international liaison and co-operation.
I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to the steering committee for all its efforts to make this symposium a success.
On behalf of my government, our subtropical fruit industry as well as all the people of South Africa I wish those who hail from far and wide a pleasant stay in our sunny South Africa.
It is my sincere wish that your visit to this part of the world will be an unforgettable experience.
I trust that the rest of your stay, and especially the post- symposium tours, will be most enjoyable and rewarding.
For the sake of science and the subtropical and tropical fruit industry I wish you an informative and rewarding meeting.
May your deliberations be fruitful and may our countries and scientists greatly benefit from the knowledge acquired.
I have great pleasure in declaring this symposium officially opened.
OPENING ADDRESS
Mr.
Minister, Mr.
Chairman, Colleagues and Friends, Ladies and
Gentlemen
It is indeed a pleasure as well as an honour for me to extend to you the welcome of the ISHS Fruit Section.
This is a particularly gratifying moment because the Nelspruit Symposium is one of the most significant, broadly appealing initiatives of its kind ever to be held here in the southern hemisphere.
That it is also the very first to take place under the auspices of and partly to be organised by the ISHS is another indication of its importance.
Unusual too is the fact that the Fruit Section, whose woroking groups are mainly concerned with temperate fruits, should take up tropical and sub-tropical crops.
These are topics usually handled by a special Society commission with which the Section actively cooperates.
That they have found a forum of acknowledged international resonance is also a tribute to South African initiative and organisation.
Many indeed of the researchers gathered here today are proof that these crops no longer are the object of sporadic interest or idle curiosity but of specific study covering such fields as nutrition and physiology, floral biology, pathology and I P M, breeding and selection, environment and phenology.
From the view point of an outside observer like myself, it is curious to note how even the world of science and its coincident technical advances is becoming ever smaller.
Genetics, technology and marketing - the market permitting - can help us to achieve goals that up to a few years ago seemed impossible.
This has led in turn to what might be called a 'two-way' interest in exotic fruit crops by researchers, growers, industry specialists and consumers.
A very evident example of this is the interest of certain areas of Central America in growing temperate species and that of temperate southern Europe in growing tropical and sub-tropical species.
Further proof, if need be, are the recent symposia in Brazil and Thailand, the release of low-chill-requirement apple, peach and grape cultivars adapted to Israel and North African countries, the protected growing of banana in Sardinia, Marocco and Korea and of fejoia, anona, babaco, etc., in areas of Europe that are certainly not wholly congenial to such sub-tropical species.
We should be dissuading these gamblers, long-shot players and slighters of nature's laws from all this because the extra input costs in technology, energy and environmental management are too high.
But the warning has fallen on deaf ears so far because of economics - the profit motive fueled by market demand.
The interest in sub-tropical crops can also be explained by the desire to diversify fruit production and to offer the consumer new options - options that increase his decision-making power and the gratification that goes with it.
This would account for the enormous interest that the European markets have shown in the fruit of the opposite hemisphere, which by the way arrives fresh at a moment when, all other things being equal, the local produce has been in cold-store or CA for six months.
The demand for fresh and exotic, including tropical, fruit from the southern hemisphere is on the increase as is that for citrus and tropical juices (in Italy, for example, it rises by a rate of 15–20% yearly). However, while there are yearly European import quotas on temperate fruits (eg 500.000 t/apples), the imports of tropical fruit are unregulated, excepting preferred-status accords between given trading partners for political reasons (eg Italy and Somalia).
It can therefore reasonably be expected that the export trade in tropical and sub-tropical produce will develop and prosper so long as the fruits are of high quality, appealing, properly stored, well packaged and above all in strict compliance with the limits of toxic residue allowed by the legislation of the importing countries.
In the future, too, the retail price will play an even smaller role in comparison to product image and warranty.
There will be no problem in marketing expensive fruit so long as it meets consumer preferences.
In this connection, and in line with its concerns for human health and the environment, the ISHS discussed and issued a manifesto this past September on "the principles of integrated fruit growing" to which crop selection, research projects, breeding and marketing are to be subordinated.
It is an ambitious programme yet the unanimous consensus of the international scientific community that drew it up urges us to pay more attention to what we ourselves are doing, to the issues facing mankind, to the social and environmental costs of conventional farming methods and less to the pursuit of narrow-minded goals and to immediate financial gains.
This is not a call to abandon technology, chemicals, fertilizers and intensive farming techniques but rather a call to greater planning and limitation in their use so that they are compatible or in equilibrium with the agricultural ecosystem.
My reason for mentioning it here is that I am sure that even tropical and sub-tropical fruit production shares a common interest in these issues, and I hope that the countries directly concerned will adopt these principles as their own.
Another important international document came out of last July's ISHS Apricot Symposium at Caserta.
It underscores a series of items designed to limit the spread and prevent the onset of 'sharka', a virus that is threatening the survival of the apricot and plum industries.
In its 25 years of activity the ISHS Fruit Section has seen the establishment of a number of Working Groups comprising scientists who are Society members and who recognise the need and the advantage of periodic meetings to compare notes, exchange information, discuss research approaches, initiate and collaborate on joint local and international projects, and organise symposia, fruit exhibitions and professional excursions.
The chairman of each group keeps in touch with its members and reports to the Section head and the Executive Committee.
For the oldest of these Groups, the Acta Horticulturae is a reference tool of the first order.
Certain issues gather together chronologically the research innovations and advances in given fields, for example in growth regulators, high density planting, apricot growing and 'decline', plum genetics.
Other topics covered of more recent date are kiwifruit, replants, soil sickness and plant-water relations.
Future research increasingly will be based on international cooperation, and the ISHS is the body that can accomodate, initiate, channel, and implement international projects.
For these are the projects that will be given increasing priority by political decision-makers of individual countries when it comes to choosing between individual and group research, national and international research.
Though individual governments lose a bit of their decisional power, thay gain far more in access to technological know how.
This is the guiding spirit of the ISHS and its Fruit Section, and I hope that all of you will come to identify with it more and more.
It needs only to be added that the Society opens its doors to all countries and that its sole reason for existing is the promotion of horticulture through research and development.
Let me conclude my remarks by thanking Dr.
Terblanche and all his co-workers on the organizing committee and by wishing everyone a most successful Symposium both in the coming week's proceedings here in the hospitable town of Nelspruit and on the field trips thereafter.
Silviero Sansavini
ISHS- Fruit Section Chaiman
Nelspruit, Novermber 5, 1989
ISHS SYMPOSIUM - KEYNOTE ADDRESS - THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN THE NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
DR J. JACOBS
Senior Deputy Governor
South African Reserve Bank
The disruption of food production in many countries during the Second World War resulted in a food shortage being experienced after the War, with the United States of America remaining as the major supplier.
Even where agricultural products were available elsewhere in the world, many countries did not have the necessary foreign exchange resources to buy food from those countries that had such surpluses.
The American assistance programme extended to the wartorn countries helped to ease the situation, but subsequent international agricultural policies in the post-war era were nonetheless materially influenced by this experience.
Great emphasis was placed on increasing agricultural production.
Taking cognisance of the rate of growth of the world population, it was argued that food supplies could be inadequate to meet the international demand, and that the aim should be to increase production as much as possible.
New production techniques as well as new cultivars and the use of chemical substances to combat diseases and weeds also helped to increase production.
Following the experience of the Second World War, many countries, notably the European Economic Community (EEC), opted for a policy of self-sufficiency in food supplies.
Developing countries also realised that stepping up agricultural production was the most effective and cheapest way to promote economic growth.
However, export markets contracted in relative terms and those that were available were mostly dominated by the export of American surpluses.
These developments have led to a situation where GATT is now focussing on a programme to open up international trade in agricultural products and to reduce export subsides, etc., that distort the flow of international trade in and production of agricultural products.
Agriculture has in fact become an increasing source of concern to governments in recent years.
Anxieties have been voiced about the general economic position of the farming sector within which income disparities and high indebtedness persist.
The increasing instability of world markets for basic agricultural products along with its impact on trade balances have similarly elicited attention, particularly since competition in export markets for these products has intensified.
An even more fundamental concern has been the rise in agricultural production in many countries at rates which have exceeded the growth in demand.
This is the case, for instance, in the OECD area where near saturation of demand has been reached, while in some developing countries lack of purchasing power has stifled growth in demand.
It has even happened in some centrally planned economies which accordingly have become less dependent upon imports.
Rising input costs have to be countered by higher productivity and production which certainly favour the consumer, but otherwise often tend merely to aggravate the financial problems of farmers.
The volatile fortunes of farming sectors in recent years have rekindled an interest among policy makers and advisers in the impact which developments in these sectors have on the macro-economy and vice versa.
These issues were brought to the fore by the following developments:
- severe droughts which afflicted eastern Australia and New Zealand (1982/1983), the USA and Canada (1988) and South Africa (most of the 1980s);
- massive changes in inventory levels in respect of several commodities;
- environmental concerns about the long-term impact of the stripping of forests on world agriculture;
- liberalisation of agricultural trade and the prospects of an integrated European Community in 1992;
- financial stress in agriculture and the restructuring of credit delivery mechanisms;
- new taxation dispensations brought about by tax reform, and
- health considerations surrounding the use of herbicides and other chemicals in agricultural production.
Agriculture's role: Global perspectiv
- World
The world's population has continued to increase at a rate of 2.1 per cent per annum since 1970 and it reached an estimated 5 142 million in 1988. Agricultural population (i.e. all persons depending on agriculture for their livelihood) as a percentage of total world population, however, decreased from 51 per cent in 1970 to 43 per cent in 1985. It is estimated that this ration will decline to 36 per cent in the year 2000. The value of agricultural production has increased from INT $737 billion in 1970 to INT $1 092 billion in 1985, i.e. by 2.2 per cent per annum.
The annual increases in value for crops, cereals and livestock over the same period were 2.14 per cent, 2.36 per cent and 2.30 per cent, respectively.
On a per capita basis world agricultural production increased by 0.4 per cent per annum be- tween 1970 and 1988.
Fertilizer usage increased from 49 kg/ha to 90 kg/ha between 1970 and 1986. Over the same period the number of tractors per 1 000/ha increased from 11 to 17. Between 1970 and 1987 input prices increased as follows:
| |
1970-US$ |
1987-US$
|
| Petroleum (crude) |
2 (per barrel) |
13
|
| Urea |
48 (per metric ton) |
117
|
| Tractors |
7 136 (per unit) |
11 227
|
Export prices ($/per metric ton) of a number of commodities were as follows:
| |
1970 |
1980 |
1988
|
| Wheat |
55 |
173 |
145
|
| Corn |
54 |
118 |
98
|
| Soybeans |
117 |
296 |
304
|
| Sugar |
112 |
487 |
525
|
| Coffee |
1 230 |
4 603 |
2 686
|
| Beef |
1 304 |
2 760 |
2 517
|
| Cotton |
553 |
1 792 |
1 264
|
Between 1970 and 1987 world trade (total exports and imports) increased form US $595 billion to US $4 724 billion.
World agricultural trade increased from US $109 billion to US $529 billion.
The contribution of agricultural exports to total global exports decreased from 18 per cent to about 11 per cent, while world grain stocks as a percentage of consumption increased from 16.9 per cent in 1970 to 17.6 per cent in 1986. Subsquently it decreased to 16.2 per cent in 1988. This represents only 9 weeks inventory, while an adequate supply is estimated to be 20 weeks.
This is the lowest level grain stocks have reached in 15 years and one which authorities on world nutrition consider unsatisfactory.
- Developed Countries
The population in developed countries is growing at a much lower rate, viz. 0.8 per cent per annum and fewer people are dependent on agriculture in these countries, namely on average only 6.3 per cent.
The value of their agricultural production increased from INT $269 billion in 1970 to INT $356 billion in 1988, representing about 32.6 per cent of the world production at current prices.
The usage of fertilizers increased from 97 kg/ha in 1970 to 115 kg/ha in 1986, while the number of tractors per 1 000/ha increased from 31 to 39. The agricultural trade for 1987 was US $361 billion or 10 per cent of the trade of developed countries and 7.6 per cent of total world trade.
Agriculture represents 9.5 per cent of the exports and 10.2 per cent of the imports of developed countries.
- Developing countries
In 1985 almost 53 per cent of the population in developing countries were dependent on agriculture.
Although the percentage has decreased from 63.4 per cent in 1970, the rate of population growth of 2.4 per cent, and as high as 3 per cent in some countries, has resulted in roughly an additional 250 million people being dependent on agriculture.
In value terms their agricultural production, which amounts to INT $379 billion, represents about 35 per cent of the world's agricultural production.
Once again, growth on a per capita basis was impeded by the rapid increase in the population with agricultural production per capita only rising by 0.1 per cent per annum.
Their total trade in 1987 amounted to US $944 billion or 20 per cent of world trade.
In contrast to other regions, the trade balance has reflected an average surplus of about 13 per cent of developing countries' trade only 2.6 per cent of the world trade.
- African countries*
In the selected countries, about 66 per cent of the population (growing at 3 per cent per annum) are dependent on agriculture.
For the periods 1966 to 1980 and 1980 to 1986 average GDP was 4.5 per cent per annum and 1.6 per cent per annum, respectively.
Agriculture's contribution to GDP is approximately 27 per cent while its export share to GDP is 24 per cent.
The total value of agricultural production amounts to INT $43.4 billion which is equivalent to 11.7 per cent and 4 per cent of the agricultural production of developed countries and the world respectively.
The self-sufficiency ratio in respect of food is about 93 per cent.
Agriculture on average contributed 21 per cent of the total trade of $83 billion (exports and imports of these countries.
Evaluation of export performance indicates that from 1966 to 1980 the growth of export earnings (in nominal terms) in all of the selected countries averaged more than 13 per cent per annum, reflecting the steep rise in commodity prices during this period.
Since 1980, however, export earnings have fallen on average by 5 per cent per annum in all countries.
This again reflects movements in international commodity prices.
* Countries included are Algeria, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Zaire, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
For purpose of comparison, information relating to 1985 was used in most instances.
Real growth in export earnings is substantially different from that of the nominal rate: less during the 1966 to 1980 period and greater during the 1980 to 1986 period.
Export earnings of all countries increased by an average of 3.2 per cent per annum between 1965 and 1980. However, there was a wide variation in growth from a decline of 4 per cent per year in Tanzania to an increase of more than 11 per cent per year in Nigeria.
Between 1980 and 1986, real export growth averaged less than 1 per cent per annum.
While real growth was slow, the average population growth rate was 3 per cent per year in these countries.
Therefor, real per capita export earnings have fallen since 1980 in 9 countries.
The countries can be categorised into agricultural and non-agricultural exporting countries.
In 10 of the 17 countries, export of agricultural commodities represented the largest share.
Among this group, the share of agricultural products (mainly coffee, cocoa, cotton and tobacco) in total exports declined from an average of 83 per cent in 1965 to 67 per cent in 1986.
For most African countries, shifts in demand for their exports cause large fluctuations in export revenues.
In addition, a high concentration of exports on a single major market or country exposes the exporter to the economic and political whims of that country or market.
The export market of the African countries is likely to be affected by the behaviour and policies of the developed countries (USA, EEC, Canada and Japan). In 1986 the share of these countries in the exports of African countries was more than 80 per cent.
Given Africa's current financial difficulties, the question is how to revive Africa's economic growth.
World Bank studies point to the lack of investment in export diversification as one of the main causes of the poor export performance of the Sub-Saharan region.
The prospects for slow movement towards diversification portend at best only marginal changes in export composition in the medium term.
One key factor that could change the export trend is the performance of commodity prices.
However, the future of export prices is uncertain because of the slow growth in world demand forecast for the more importand exports commodities.
According to world Bank forecasts, commodity prices will expand at a rate ranging from 0.8 to 5.4 per cent per annum.
However, for 5 of the 6 commodities (petroleum, coffee, cocoa, cotton and copper) the annual growth rates will be less than 3 per cent (the average population growth), meaning that if export volumes are not increased by more than 3 per cent, the per capita export earnings will decline in countries relying on a single or few commodities.
- South Africa
South Africa's population has increased by 2.6 per cent per annum since 1970 and presently is estimated at 36.8 million.
Approximately 23 per cent of the population is dependent on agriculture for a living.
Agriculture (excluding tht TBVC- countries) employs 13.6 per cent of the economically active population.
In the TBVC-countries and self-governing state the percentage is roughly 30 per cent.
South Africa's GDP (at factor cost) increased from R12 023 million to R178 534 million over the 1970-1988 period, i.e. by 16.17 per cent per annum.
The increase in real terms was 2.5 per cent annum.
Agriculture's contribution to GDP decreased from 8 per cent in 1970 to 6 per cent in 1988. South Africa's exports (merchandise and gold) amouted to R51 094 million in 1988 to which agriculture contributed R2 488 million.
Fresh fruits constituted nearly 17 per cent of agricultural exports.
Statistic from the FAO show that South Africa's trade in US-dollar terms is equivalent to nearly 34 per cent of the trade of the 17 African countries referred to above.
Steps have been taken in recent years to create a more market related agricultural industry in South Africa.
The prolonged drought that afflicted in particular the summer rainfall crop farming areas during the 1980s, has complicated the implementation of structural adjustments in farming systems, but progress has nonetheless been made to expose to an increaseing extent the agricultural industry in respect of production, marketing, price determination and financing to market forces.
Agricultural trade and intervention levels
Current negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) include proposals to eliminate government programmes affecting agriculture in the member countries.
Key to the negotiations are methods to assess the economic effects of such programmes.
The producer subsidy equivalent (PSE) is such a measure.
Subsidy equivalents by combining the effects of a wide variety of goverment policies into one parameter, allow comparisons to be made of goverment support across countries, commodity markets, and type of policies.
Subsidy equivalent analyses reveal significant goverment intervention in the agricultural sectors of almost all countries.
A wide range of commodities receive such support.
Moreover, there is a great variety of mechanisms used to subsidise farmers, or in some cases to implicitly tax them.
A comparison of policy instruments shows heavy reliance on policies that support prices and incomes while subsidising the use of inputs.
If the GATT negotiations focus on the reduction of trade distortions, these policies will receive considerable attention.
A comparison of country PSEs shows wide variations in intervention.
Japan and South Korea provide the highest levels of support for producers as a proportion of producer revenue in the commodities included in the survey.
The United States, EEC, Canada, New Zealand, Mexico and South Africa have more significantly lower levels.
In the poorest of the less-developed countries (LCDs), support tends to be negative: that is, agricultural producers are implicitly taxed.
Nearly all countries showed a tendency to increase their support in the 1980s, although that entailed reduced government intervention for LDCs that had been net taxers.
The following gives an indication of goverment intervention in agriculture according to PSEs* for 1987.
| Industrialised |
% |
Latin America |
%
|
| Australia |
11 |
Argentina |
15
|
| Canada |
31 |
Brazil |
42
|
| EEC-10 |
35 |
Mexico |
29
|
| New Zealand |
25 |
|
|
| USA |
25 |
|
|
| Africa |
% |
Asia |
%
|
| Egypt |
-24 |
India |
3
|
| Kenya |
-10 |
Indonesia |
8
|
| Nigeria |
19 |
Thailand |
4
|
| South Africa |
12 |
|
|
* A producer subsidy equivalent (PSE) is the percentage of producer revenue that arises from transfers to producers resulting from goverment programmes.
Europe 1992: Implications for agriculture
The EEC's programme to complete its internal free trade market by 1992 has generated considerable debate.
To many EEC officials, the impact on agriculture appears to be of a secondary nature in the overall scheme of 1992 because the industry is assumed already to enjoy a common market.
The outcome for agriculture after 1992, as well as for other economic sectors, is far from certain at this juncture, but short-term effects for the EEC's food and agribusiness sector will have indirect effects on agriculture.
Theoretical long-term effects would result from a movement to an EEC agriculture based more on comparative cost advantages.
The need to abolish Monetary Currency Units (MCUs) should reinforce the moves towards changes in the EEC's agricultural policies.
The movement towards glasnost and perestroika in Eastern Europe, the opening up of their markets by these countries and the possibility that in due course they may become closer associated or integrated with the economies of Western Europe, raise the prospect of a new expanding market becoming available for agricultural products in the late 1990s.
South Africa is still capable of expanding substantially its production of exportable products such as citrus and deciduous fruit and will consequently continue to monitor developments in these markets with great interest.
CONCLUSION
Agricultural production has thus far defied the gloom grophesies of Malthus.
Many countries mostly with the exception of the African countries, have successfully implemented policies to reduce the rate of population growth as a means of improving the quality of life of their people.
This featuree is restraining the growth in demand for food and has also rendered the international markets for agricultural products extremely competitive.
Rising input costs in the developing countries is the most serious problem farmers have to contend with and macro-economic policies aimed at promoting greater price stability could consequently make a major contribution towards improving the export competitiveness of these countries.
The availability of soil for the horizontal expansion of agricultural production is limited and more intensive farming techniques consequently hold the key to future increases in agricultural production.
Agricultural research hs played a major role in improving productivity in agriculture and it is therefore fitting at a conference of this nature to pay tribute to the contribution researchers and extension officers have made towards attaining this goal.
ISHS SYMPOSIUM - KEYNOTE ADDRESS
THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE EUROPEAN MARKET FOR PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS
D.W. HENDERSON
GEEST PRODUCE MARKETING DIVISION,
WHITE HOUSE CHAMBERS
SPALDING, LINCOLNSHIRE PE11 2AL
UNITED KINGDOM
THE DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS FOR FRESH FRUIT
The recognition of, and desire to meet, the demand for fresh fruit that is a pleasure to eat and convenient to buy was seized upon by a new type of retailer, in association with a new type of produce distribution company, establishing their own dramatic growth patterns.
| |
1976 |
1987
|
| Supermarkets |
22 |
49
|
| Greengrocers |
37 |
28
|
| Market stalls |
25 |
17
|
| Others |
16 |
6
|
This growth in supermarkets spurred on by changing shopping habits with more emphasis on one stop shopping and large out of town superstores, has meant that the supply of fruit is becoming increasingly channelled through large and sophisticated fruit handling companies involved in all aspects of importation and distribution.
These UK patterns of change will emerge as a vigorous underlying feature of the European produce market during the 1990s.
In the UK there followed investment in temperature controlled vehicles, modern fruit handling centres, prepacking and ripening facilities with more sophisticated pre- and post-harvest practices being established at source.
Environmental management from harvest to retail store coupled with extensive quality assurance resources have become the tools of the produce industry today.
It is an economic fact of life that any chain of distribution establishes and maintains common standards throughout its length.
The adoption of the latter system focusing as it does on quality and making extensive use of technical expertise in the supply chain, has made UK food retailing organisations such as Sainsbury, Tesco and Safeways and produce distribution companies, Like Geest, world leaders in their field.
The share of the UK produce market, now approaching 50%, captured by some 6 national multiple organisations, has undoubtedly been one of the crucial enabling features encouraging a traditional producer orientated trade to become a modern market led industry.
The prize for all of us, producers, distributors and retailers has been the creation of a buoyant expanding market with many attractive opportunities for the future.
One of these opportunities, and I have selected it as an example to illustrate the principles underlying the growth, is the market for exotic tropical fruit.
Estimated to be worth T 67m at wholesale levels, in the UK, it is now a focus of interest and opening up a number of exciting prospects, not only in the UK, but throughout Europe.
There are two underlying forces which have been stimulating the growth in this range of fruits.
The first has been a recognition of the value of 3m ethnic people living in the UK from diverse origins, as an important market for fresh produce.
This is a feature common throughout Europe.
During the last three decades there has been substantial settlement in Europe of people of African, Asian and Caribbean descent and in the Federal Republic of Germany there has been a large, even though transient, labour force drawn particularly from Turkey, as well as an increasing number of Africans.
This has presented importers and retailers within the EEC with an opportunity to develop new products from new sources of supply for people who may wish to eat more often those fruits which relate to the country of their or their parents origin.
The other force, particular to the UK, is the broadening taste of the British public, stimulated by the post-war boom in cheap continental holidays.
A wide section of the population have now experienced foreign travel and have eaten and enjoyed a range of unfamilar fruits and vegetables.
These products start to be eaten at home on special occassions or in restaurants and slowly become part of the regular diet.
This process is characteristic of the more affluent members of society due to the high degree of educational effort needed to attract experimentation in new foods.
Both these market forces have complemented each other and, together with the presence of the ethnic population who have given the market a ready base demand from people anxious to purchase products unfamiliar to the indigenous population, they have assisted in the growth of the exotic tropical fruit market.
This, coupled with a more adventurous British public has added impetus to a trend which has caught hold of both indigenous and immigrant populations alike.
The key to the importance of exotic tropical fruits lies in the potential that a particular product may have to make the transition from an ethnic product, with an available market in the UK of 3 m people, to an exotic fruit with general appeal to the population of 56 m - how much larger an opportunity within Europe with a population of 320 m.
This transitional development is being accelerated by the multiples who now merchandise an extensive range of ethnic produce to encourage the custom of the ethnic population and at the same time stimulate trial purchases of these products by a British public more willing to experience and experiment with new flavours and exciting culinary ideas.
These type of products, which are susceptible to an AB socio-economic bias, tend to enjoy a higher market penetration in the affluent South East but this tendency is offset by the location of large immigrant communities in the midlands, the north and Scotland, giving a more balanced spread of consumption throughout the country but with the growth occurring in the South East.
Illustrated below is an analysis of the products, market size and opportunities for growth.
Whilst this analysis relates to the UK market, a similar picture will emerge from an analysis of other European countries.
Although grouped together under the generic heading of exotic tropical fruits, the market should not be regarded as a single homogeneous entity.
The fruits are eaten by different people, in different ways, marketed through different outlets and have distinctive reasons contributing to or inhibiting their growth prospects.
By drawing on some specific examples, the key issues affecting growth in the fruit market can be identified and some general operational principles established which, if followed, will greatly contribute to, not only growth in the market, but also increased participation by the adoptive company.
Pineapples
The UK market for pineapples is split into catering and domestic needs.
Not surprisingly the catering industry has a demand for a large fruit with a full crown that both eats well and provides a spectacular addition to a fruit bowl in a restaurant.
For domestic use however, the demand is for a much smaller fruit, more appropriate to individual needs.
| THE MARKET DEMAND FOR PINEAPPLE
|
| Size |
Weight |
Fruits/Cartoon |
Market
|
| |
(gms)
|
|
|
| A |
1816-2050 |
8 |
catering
|
| B |
1250-1400 |
12 |
catering
|
| C |
950-1150 |
12 |
domestic
|
| D |
800- 900 |
20 |
domestic
|
One aspect, crucial to the successful marketing of pineapples, as well as all other fruits, is its taste, a characteristic significantly influenced by the sugar to acid ratio.
The market demand is for high sugar levels with low acidity, whereas the industry, shipping by sea to keep to costs down, provides the opposite.
| Maturity |
Colouration |
Method of |
Content
|
Index
|
From Base
|
Transportation
|
Sugar
|
Acid
|
| M1 |
25% |
sea |
low |
high
|
| M2 |
50% |
sea |
|
| M3 |
75% |
air |
|
| M4 |
100% |
air |
high |
low
|
The technical challenge to the industry is quite clear; provide the knowledge and facilities to enable properly matured fruit, currently being air freighted, to be successful shipped by sea container.
This will enable the cost to come down, the quality to be maintained and the market to grow.
| |
tonnes |
index |
value |
index
|
|
(x1000)
|
|
(£ million)
|
|
| 1978 |
7,6 |
100 |
3,4 |
100
|
| 1981 |
14,4 |
189 |
6,0 |
176
|
| 1984 |
15,2 |
200 |
8,2 |
241
|
| 1987 |
21,3 |
280 |
11,3 |
332
|
Value: Based upon ex quay prices
The market, growing in volume and in value, does provide an attractive opportunity.
On the basis of this, Geest have initiated a focused crop development programme in the West Indies with the specific objective of exploiting the opportunity identified in the domestic market.
Avocado
The avocado is an excellent example of a product which has successfully made the transition from an ethnic fruit into a popular product extensively promoted through all outlets.
It has become a large market but still retains high growth potential.
Eaten in restaurants and at home with multiple applications, as an appetiser or in a salad, sales of this product can be substantially increased.
The principal factor inhibiting growth in the market is the condition of the fruit at the point of sale.
Often immediately inedible it has to be ripened by restauranteur or housewife.
How much better if it is offered in a ready to eat condition, an offer that will encourage repeat purchases with a greater frequency.
We at Geest now ripen, prepack and market avocados for immediate consumption and by so doing have taken a product in the early stages of its life cycles and made a significant impact on the rate of growth of its market.
| |
tonnes |
index |
value |
index
|
| |
(x1000) |
|
(£ million) |
|
| 1978 |
4,9 |
100 |
4,0 |
100
|
| 1981 |
8,3 |
169 |
5,9 |
148
|
| 1984 |
11,9 |
243 |
10,7 |
268
|
| 1987 |
28,4 |
580 |
25,6 |
640
|
Value: Based upon ex quay prices
Geest are now ripening a wide range of fruits including mangoes and papayas, adding value, stimulating consumptions, and developing the market.
Mangoes
The mango is one of the most exciting fruits available in the United Kingdom today offering an enormous potential for growth but requiring a greater deal of product development.
Its history of growth in volume is greater than any other product yet, despite its track record, shortage of supply remains a continually recurring problem.
| |
tonnes |
index |
value |
index
|
|
|
|
(£ million)
|
|
| 1978 |
1890 |
100 |
1,40 |
100
|
| 1980 |
3290 |
174 |
2,99 |
214
|
| 1983 |
4230 |
250 |
5,49 |
392
|
| 1986 |
8750 |
463 |
9,25 |
661
|
The mango displays all the characteristics essential for success in the UK market, with its distinctive flavour, pleasant texture and outstanding appearance.
However, there are a number of key factors inhibiting the full realisation of its market potential.
Despite a marked consumer preference for highly coloured, aromatic, fibreless, monoembryonic varieties, such as Haden, Tommy Atkins, Sensation, Keitt and Kent, there has been a failure to develop reliable sources which will provide the market with a continuity of quality 52 weeks ofthe year.
| |
MAJOR SOURCES OF MANGO SUPPLY TO THE UK
|
| |
month
|
| |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12
|
| Mexico |
|
|
|
|
x |
x |
x |
x |
x |
|
|
|
| Venezuela |
|
|
x |
x |
x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Peru |
x |
x |
x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil |
x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
x |
x |
x
|
| Puerto Rico |
|
|
|
|
|
x |
x |
x |
x |
|
|
|
A particular problem affecting continuity of supply is the irregular bearing pattern of mangoes.
This problem of periodicity is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate regional cultural practices.
Failure to specify and enforce proper maturity indices for harvesting, severely restricts the confidence with which the fruit may be exported by sea.
This encourages the continued use of expensive airfreight transportation, necessitating high retail prices which in turn inhibits the development of the market.
Latent infections of anthracnose are another manifestation of poor cultural practices and orchard hygiene.
While it may prove difficult to eliminate the disease completely, applied research and effective management can make the orchard environment much less conducive to fungal development.
The successful containerised shipment by sea is a critical factor in market development.
Not only does it bring the price down but it also makes a much larger volume more regularly available.
To achieve this requires tight control on the pre- and post-harvest management of the fruit coupled with technical research into the optimum environmental conditions for the journey in order that the fruit arrives in peak condition.
From a review of the changing background to our industry coupled with a detailed examination of some of the key issues behind three of the most important exotic tropical fruits, it is possible to draw up a list of essential action points for any producer wishing to profitably export to the European friut market.
- MARKET RESEARCH
It is a fundamental prerequisite to any business venture or product to have a detailed understanding of the market.
Research must address three basic questions.
Who is going to purchase the product?
What condition do they want it in?
What are they going to do with it?
- PRODUCT SPECIFICATION
From the market research will flow a product specification defining the condition of the fruit at its point of sale.
This specification must address the needs of the consumer, but it should not be used to alleviate the problems of the producer and then become a crutch to excuse deficiencies in the produc, or the infrastructure at source and the system of transportation to its market.
- TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Technical resources must then be deployed into the distribution chain to establish the most appropriate pre and post harvest practices, the type of facilities required at source, and, in the longer term the best cultivars to develop for the market given the suitability of the area of production.
- CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Research to determine the product specification that the market requires coupled with a technical survey of what, where and how the product is to be produced, then packaged and delivered to the customer, will enable more accurate capital investment evaluations and decisions to be made with much greater and longer term profit potential for the producer.
- MANAGEMENT
The final link between producer and customer is the implementation of a project to produce and deliver a product or range of products to the market.
To be successful, the time of harvesting, the post-harvest handling, the selection and organisation of the method of transportation used and the suitability of the environment in which the fruit is being carried must all be rigorously controlled against technically established operational practices.
The process is about management, the single weakest link in the chain and perhaps the most difficult problem to overcome.
Put into perspective, market research, product specification, technical information, capital investment and competant trained management can turn a traditional producer - orientated trade into a modern marketing - led industry and it will provide growth, investment and profitability to those organisations who adopt this approach, be they producer, distributor or retailer.
To be successful, it is and must remain a team effort involving all three and in the UK, it is the team effort which is providing better quality fresh produce to the public, encouraging an increase in consumption, and providing better returns to the producer.
What is happening in the UK today will happen in Europe tomorrow.
A good producer is one who meets the needs of his customers today.
The really successful one is the man who both anticipates and prepares for their needs tomorrow.
ISHS SYMPOSIUM
CLOSING SPEECH BY MR. J. DE VILLIERS - MINISTER OF
AGRICULTURE
It is indeed a pleasure to be speaking to you at the closing dinner of this highly successful symposium on the culture of subtropical and tropical fruits and crops.
It is an honour to be here and I wish to express my appreciation for the kind invitation to your farewell meeting.
I am well aware of the esteem your society and its members enjoy and am therefore all the more gratified at the opportunity of conveying to you my country's sincere appreciation for having organised this symposium in South Africa.
You have thereby demonstrated your goodwill and friendship to South Africa.
Since your society is an international one your meetings are attended by people of different nationalities, each with his own cultural background and customs.
Apart from these differences we have at least one thing in common and that is an interest in the culture of subtropical and tropical fruits and crops world-wide.
Your society has a proud record of promoting horticulture internationally.
For more than a century international congresses have been arranged by horticultural scientists, but it was only three decades ago that the present society was founded, mainly to encourage international collaboration during the four year period in between congresses.
South Africa, a founder member of the society, is today still one of the 47 countries represented on the council responsible for the management and organisation of the International Society for Horticultural Science.
Many South African scientists have in the past attended your congresses, symposia and workshops overseas, and I would like to believe that their contributions at those meetings have played a major role in your decision to choose South Africa for the symposium just completed here at Nelspruit.
Our friends who hail from abroad have not only demonstrated goodwill towards a thriving industry, but have also proved to be good friends of their research associates in South Africa.
I believe scientists from Australia, Brazil, Central America, Chile, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malawi, the Republic of China, Reunion, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States of America presented about 70 of the 130 papers which were delivered.
I trust that you from abroad have also acquired new knowledge and have arrived at new conclusions and conceptions after having listened to the other presentations and taking part in the discussions.
I hope the post-symposium tours will also live up to your expectations and that you will find your visits to the fruit production areas in the eastern and northern Transvaal, Natal and the eastern Cape informative and interesting.
South Africa is proud of her achievements in many fields of enterprise.
We have also made many contributions to agriculture internationally and we shall continue to do so.
A Directorate of the Department of Agriculture and the Institute who hosted this symposium, are engaged in compiling test guidelines for plant breeders according to the international standards set by the international union for the protection of new varieties of plants in respect of avocados, mangoes, guavas, bananas and macadamias.
They will also revise the guidelines for citrus.
The citrus and Subtropical Fruit Research Institute serves an industry which strives to enhance the quality of our daily lives in that it provides fruit and other commodities essential to man and ensures a livelihood to many people.
That is why we wish to share our research findings with growers, researchers and all involved with agriculture around the world.
Someone said many centuries ago that there is always some thing new from Africa.
This still holds good today, especially in respect of South Africa.
The latest from this part of the continent is that the marula, one of our indigenous subtropical fruits with an exceptional potential, will be the first wild tree from Africa to be selected as a commercial fruit tree.
You have, in fact, heard a paper on the commercial potential of the marula earlier this week.
You may even have the opportunity of tasting our marula liqueur.
For South Africa the subtropical fruit industries are of the greatest importance for they make a very valuable contribution to the total agricultural sector and its affiliated secondary industries.
They also play a cardinal role in the economy of the country.
They are labour intensive and therefore create income and job opportunities for many South Africans, earn foreign exchange, supply food to consumers and support a variety of secondary industries such as processing, transport, machinery and agricultural chemicals.
At present the subtropical fruit industries, including citrus, earn more than one thousand million rand in foreign currency a year, while the earnings of producers amount to about 800 million rand per annum.
Total production is estimated at more than one million metric tonnes a year.
These industries show a great potential for growth, not only in the fresh fruit market, but also in the processed fruit market.
The main objective of production and processing-directed subtropical fruit research is to provide guidelines for the optimisation of production, quality and profits.
Through its research the Citrus and Subtropical Fruit Research Institute aims at the development of high quality subtropical products for fresh consumption as well as processing.
At present the research program of the Institute comprises some 160 research facets.
There is not a single example of a well established and thriving agricultural industry in the world which is not strongly supported by research.
There is no sounder investment to be made for the improvement of agriculture than a well organised and co-ordinated research effort.
Recent analyses have shown that return on investment in agricultural research by far outyielded return on investment in any other sphere of business.
The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds and the pessimist fears that this is true.
Whether you are an optimist or a pessimist you will agree that we must work together for the welfare of all people.
We should endeavour to employ modern technology to its full capacity.
Great and numerous advances have been made lately, all benign and beneficial to mankind, but I would not for one moment imply that all the world's horticultural problems have been fully solved or that all our difficulties have been overcome.
Progress is a necessity and science will continue to assiduously transform the world, just as it has in the past.
The battle to conquer is a continuing one and we can rely on our horticulturists to find meaningful solutions to problems that tend to curtail development and progress.
George Bernard Shaw once said: "Science is always wrong - it never solves a problem without creating ten more". If this assumption is correct, the scientists assembled here tonight must have created many new problems after five days of talks and discussions.
But then again, scientific communication, especially on an international level, is very important -- "it maketh a ready man", to quote another English author.
Our knowledge is the amassed thoughts and experience of innumerable minds and every addition to true knowledge is an addition to human power.
During your symposium opinions were expressed by specialists on scientific topics in their own fields and presentations were on a high level.
You generated knowledge for all to be had and to be implemented and your deliberations were to the advantage of an industry you all serve so well.
I will detain you no longer.
I have said perhaps more than enough to explain why agricultural research is of paramount importance to our subtropical and tropical fruit industries.
It is my privilege to thank especially our guests from abroad for coming to South Africa to share their knowledge with us, to make new friends, to renew old friendships and to see for themselves.
We are happy to have you here and trust that the rest of your stay will be most enjoyable and rewarding.
In conclusion, I wish to congratulate you all on an outstanding symposium and wish you a safe return home.
|