ISHS Acta Horticulturae 273: V International Workshop on Fireblight
A WARNING SYSTEM FOR FIRE BLIGHT ON PEARS IN BELGIUM : PRELIMINARY MODEL AND PRACTICAL PROSPECTS. |
| Author: | Y. TIMMERMANS |
| Abstract:
A three years study was carried out in several Belgian orchards from 1985 till 1987 in order to stress the influence of phenology on fire blight development on pears. From the data collected in a cv. Durondeau pear orchard near Brussels, a model was constructed to adjust existing warning systems to the conditions prevailing in Belgium and to add phenological features to the usual climatological ones. The model consists of three successive stages : assessment of risks of disease establishment, calculation of incubation time and determination of symptom expression. Each day, the simulation expresses the relative number of infected flowers, shoots and pears and the relative quantities of symptoms resulting from previous infections. To judge its validity, the model has been applied to other orchards of the same cultivar for a wider period. A brief description of the model and a few examples are presented. The comparison between simulation and actual symptomatological observations indicates quite good agreement in the dates of appearance and the quantities of symptoms, in spite of a lack of parameters and inaccuracy of some measurements. The model needs to be improved in the next few years owing to additional data and it could then be used as a basic system for fire blight control. | |
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