ISHS Acta Horticulturae 217: IV International Workshop on Fire Blight
MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF BLOSSOM INFECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES |
| Authors: | S.J. Schwager, S.V. Beer, J.L. Norelli, H.S. Aldwinckle, T.J. Burr |
| Abstract:
The relative risk of the occurrence of severe fire blight in specified orchard blocks in a given season is analyzed by the method of logistic regression with multiple predictors. This technique allows the inclusion of factors particular to individual orchard blocks, which affect host susceptibility and the availability of inoculum, and weather conditons, which affect the dissemination and multiplication of Erwinia amylovora. A regression model has been developed using data from orchard blocks in New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia, collected during the 1983 and 1985 seasons. Specific orchard risk factors and weather risk factors associated with fire blight are discussed. The determination of overall risk of fire blight is considered. This approach could be used as a basis for recommending the application of bactericide sprays to prevent blossom infection. | |
Download Adobe Acrobat Reader (free software to read PDF files) | |
