ISHS Acta Horticulturae 203: IX Symposium on Horticultural Economics, XXII IHC
FLOWER GROWERS' REPORTED INTENTIONS: THEIR PREDICTIVE ACCURACY |
| Author: | D.C. Goodrich Jr |
| Abstract:
Annual reports of volumes of selected florist crops produced and sold in the United States, and intentions for following years, have been published by the United States Department of Agriculture since 1957, with occasional interruptions and changes in crop, state and grower coverage. Predictive value of these data were examined by analyzing percentage differences between outcomes and intentions. Intentions data were more reliable indicators of the direction than of the magnitude of change in production. Outcome/intention differences varied among crops, years and states, but on a multi-state or national basis most differences were less than 10 percentage points. Differences tended to be greater for crops whose production could be altered significantly by short-term management decisions. Differences tended to be greater for those crops and in those states which experienced significant expansion or contraction in production over time. | |
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