ISHS Acta Horticulturae 184: I International Symposium on Computer Modelling in Fruit Research and Orchard Management
A MARKET SIMULATION MODEL FOR PERENNIAL CROPS |
| Author: | H.-Chr. Behr |
| Abstract:
In this paper a preliminary version of a market simulation model for fruit crops is discussed. An extended version of this model will be used to evaluate long-term effects of different market policies for perennial crops in the enlarged European Community. In the first part, the model structure and the main equations are explained. The equilibrium prices and quantities are calculated for each simulation year using an iterative procedure. The reliability of the model is tested in an ex-post simulation using the data of the West German apple market. Simulated and observed time series of imports, demand quantities (fresh fruit, autoconsumption, processing, market withdrawals) and new plantings are compared for the period 1973/74 to 1981/82. In most cases, the two time series show satisfactory correspondence. | |
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