Abstract:
As part of a general model for Dutch agriculture a model is built to describe production as well as investment behaviour of firms growing vegetables in glasshouses.
Next to a linear programming to evaluate the profitability of different production and investment activities, the model uses estimated behaviour equations to measure reactions of growers to changes in the calculated profitability of production and investments.
Five important products are distinguished: tomatoes, cucumbers, sweet peppers, lettuce and gherkins.
The supply of tomatoes during Januari untill April, May and June is mainly determined by global radiation and the profitability of tomatoes.
Competition of other products, otherwise than incorporated within the linear programming, could not be proven.
Cucumber, sweet peppers and gherkins do have some competition of tomatoes.
Dependent on their changing pattern in relation to funds available the investments can be distinguished into "necessary", "optional" and "proportional" investments.
The first group: investments in heating systems, does not depend on the funds available.
The optional investments: land purchases and buildings only occur as large funds are available.
Investments in engines, glasshouses and climate control are more or less proportional to funds available.
Simulation runs with this model are promising, even though it is not possible yet to measure market reactions.
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