ISHS Acta Horticulturae 155: VIII Symposium on Horticultural Economics
MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING OF APPLE PRICES BEFORE SEASON START A MODIFIED APPLICATION OF THE "DELPHI-METHOD" |
| Author: | H. Janssen |
| Abstract:
Seasonal price averages of apples in the European Economic Community (EEC) are rorrelated to the total apple crop. Unfortunately, price averages of individual varieties are not closely enough correlated to their crops. So, reliable predictions of seasonal price means cannot only be based on computing regression equations. Additional methods of price forecasts may be useful. Since 1981, we are doing an experiment to get reliable forecasts of seasonal price means of GOLDEN DELICIOUS apples by asking a committee of experts 6 – 8 weeks before the storing and marketing season has started. Our method of questionning is similar to the "Delphi Method". During three years of experiment, the obtained price forecasts are of growing reliability. | |
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