ISHS Acta Horticulturae 155: VIII Symposium on Horticultural Economics
A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN MARKET OF AVOCADOS IN 1990 AS A BASIS FOR PLANNING SPANISH SHORT-TERM SUPPLY |
| Author: | J. Requena |
| Abstract:
An analysis is made of the expected European market of avocados in 1990, with forecasts about the supply and demand and the price decreases that will inevitably occur because of the evolution of the situation. In fact, avocados were, until five years ago, a rare or luxury product, but they are now expected to be widely consumed in Europe in order to absorb the large quantities of this fruit that will inevitably be produced by the existing plantations and by those that will be planted in 1984 and 1985. The latter will begin to produce in 1990 which is exactly the year we have chosen to make our forecast. The analysis of the national supply evolution is quite simple because the trees that will produce in 1988 are already planted, so in 1990 is "short-term" forecast for new plantations. This study is based on a comprehensive census carried out by the I.N.I.A. (Project 3.297 of the Agricultural Economy and Sociology National Programme) in 1981, which was based for a supply forecasting model on the Granada and Malaga Coast. Its reliability was checked two years later (March 1983). To study the supply evolution of Israel, South Africa and other countries of minor importance as far as avocados production is concerned, we started from various existing studies analyzed in the already mentioned INIA project 3.297. This was also the basis to study the other components of the national supply: Canarian production. The starting point of the study of supply evolution is the knowledge of the present situation of consumption in the different European countries, and a series of hypotheses about its evolution, which is particularly undetermined for the German, Italian and Spanish markets. A historical analysis of the points of market equilibrium allows to estimate the historical trend of demand, reaching a functional relation between price/Tm in thousands of $ CIF Marseilles and the quantity demanded by the European market in thousands of Tm. The supply and demand analysis and this functional relation provide sufficient elements to forecast the market situation in 1990 under different assumptions, and enables us to draw conclusions about the structure, quantity, quality and | |
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