ISHS Acta Horticulturae 135: VII Symposium on Horticultural Economics, XXI IHC
METHODICAL PROBLEMS OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM SUPPLY PROJECTIONS ON THE GERMAN FLOWER MARKET |
| Author: | G. Timm |
| Abstract:
Management plans of an enterprise usually refer to the future. Thus, informations about the future developments of economic variables are of great importance for the management's attempts to get adjusted to changing economic conditions. The following paper investigates whether producer surveys on their intentions for the future production can lead to a reliable short or medium term supply projection for ornamentals. The results of the projection are based on the information given by 880–960 producers. An ex-post control of the projection results shows that the predicted changes for the product groups mostly correspond with the actual tendencies. The supply forecast for single varieties, however, is in general subject to a larger projection bias. The projection results should help producers as well as institutional decision makers to adjust their plans to the market situation in time. | |
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