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ISHS Acta Horticulturae 1241: III International Symposium on Underutilized Plant Species

Coriander crop status in India - a statistical analysis

Authors:   K. Prabakaran, C. Ravindran, U. Arulanandu, M. Kavitha
Keywords:   forecasting, area, production, coriander, ARIMA, ACF, PACF
DOI:   10.17660/ActaHortic.2019.1241.13
Abstract:
Coriander area and production in India data for the period of 1996-1997 to 2013-2014 were analyzed by time series methods. Auto correlation function (ACF) and partial auto correlation function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model were used to forecast coriander area and production in India for four leading years, respectively. The results also shows coriander area forecast for the year 2018 to be about 464.9 thousand ha with upper and lower limit 816.37 and 113.44 thousand ha, respectively. The model also shows coriander production forecast for the year 2018 to be about 479.72 thousand t with upper and lower limit 702.6 and 256.84 thousand t, respectively.

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